[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 28 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 120/72 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a
single long duration C1 class X-ray flare peaking at 0114UT,
most likely from an active region behind the east limb from which
a backside CME was observed to erupt shortly thereafter. No other
geoeffective CMEs were observed during 27 June in the available
SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery. All numbered regions on the
solar disk remain fairly stable. Expect solar activity to be
mostly Low over the next three days. ACE data show the solar
wind at nominal levels over 27 June UT day. Elevated solar wind
speed from a coronal hole may take effect late today,28 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 10000010
Cocos Island 0 10000010
Darwin 1 10000011
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 1 10100010
Alice Springs 1 10000011
Norfolk Island 0 01000000
Culgoora 1 10000011
Gingin 0 00000020
Camden 0 00000011
Canberra 0 00000010
Launceston 1 10001010
Hobart 0 00000010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 00100020
Mawson 2 10001122
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1002 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 12 Quiet to Unsettled conditions with a chance of
isolated Active periods.
29 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jun 7 Mostly Quiet.
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours at
all latitudes. The expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed
wind stream in the next 12-24 hours is expected to cause Unsettled
conditions with a chance of isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
29 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
30 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 40 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Jun 40 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
30 Jun 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 25 June
and is current for 26-28 Jun. Variable depressions observed in
the Australian region due to declining EUV levels related to
a low number of active regions on the Sun. There should be Unsettled
geomagnetic activity due to high solar wind speed from a coronal
hole, with possible peak Active (depending on Interplanetary
Magnetic field north-south orientation) from late on 28 June,
probably causing MUF depressions up to 40% for 28-29 June. Slight
improvement in HF conditions possible on 30 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 52900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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