[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 27 09:30:16 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low with a single C2 class X-ray
flare. Currently 5 numbered regions on the solar disk, they all
appear relatively stable. Expect solar activity to be mostly
Low over the next three days. No geoeffective CMEs were observed
during 26 June in the available SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery.
Solar wind speed remains steady at around 350 km/s. Light solar
wind speeds are expected for day 1,27 June. Day 2, 28 June, there
is likely to be a modest increase in the solar wind speed as
a coronal hole moves into geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11112000
Cocos Island 1 11101000
Darwin 1 10111001
Townsville 2 11112001
Learmonth 1 11011000
Alice Springs 1 10111000
Norfolk Island 1 00111000
Culgoora 2 01112000
Gingin 0 00011000
Camden 2 11112000
Canberra 1 00012000
Launceston 2 11012010
Hobart 1 00012000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 00013100
Casey 2 01211000
Mawson 3 11112110
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 5 1121 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jun 7 Quiet
28 Jun 12 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet at all latitudes. Solar
wind parameters remain at nominal levels. Expect Quiet conditions
day one. Possible minor disturbances day two due to a coronal
hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
28 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
29 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jun 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jun 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
28 Jun 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Jun 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 25 June
and is current for 26-28 Jun. Variable depressions observed in
the Australian region due to declining EUV levels related to
a low number of active regions on the Sun. MUFs are expected
to remain lower than predicted over the next 3 days due to this
decrease in EUV. Minor disturbances possible Antarctic region
day two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 33100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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