[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 25 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jun 26 Jun 27 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low with a single C2 class X-ray
flare. Solar wind conditions have returned to ambient following
the minor CME impact on the 23rd of June UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 21100010
Cocos Island 2 21110010
Darwin 2 22100011
Townsville 3 22200010
Learmonth 2 21110010
Alice Springs 2 12100010
Norfolk Island 2 22100000
Culgoora 2 21100010
Gingin 2 21100010
Camden 2 21100010
Canberra 1 21100000
Launceston 2 22110010
Hobart 1 21100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 10110000
Casey 3 32110000
Mawson 14 54221113
Davis 11 53321000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1000 1124
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jun 5 Quiet
26 Jun 5 Quiet
27 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. No disturbances are expected
in the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
26 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
27 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs
below those based on the monthly T index.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jun 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jun 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jun 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
27 Jun 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 22 June
and is current for 23-25 Jun. Depressions up to 40% observed
in the Australian region due to declining EUV levels resulting
from a decrease in active regions on the Sun. IPS HF radio communications
warning 14/31 remains in effect.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.5E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 18900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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