[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 14 issued 2345 UT on 23 Jun 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 24 09:45:15 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jun 25 Jun 26 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with only one minor
C-class flare observed at 1444UT from Region 2093 (S09W32). All
regions appear relatively stable. Solar activity is expected
to be Low for the next 3 days with a slight chance of an isolated
low M-class flare. No geoeffective CMEs were observed during
23 June in the available SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery. ACE
data show nominal conditions until ~2200 UT when a weak shock
arrived. The solar wind speed jumped to ~400 km/s and IMF Bz
component turned southwards. Density indicates the arrival of
anticipated CME. The solar wind speed is expected to remain slightly
elevated next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 01000001
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 0 10100000
Townsville 1 11000001
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 1 01000002
Culgoora 1 01000002
Gingin 0 00000000
Camden 1 11000002
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 2 01000003
Hobart 0 00000002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 0 10100000
Mawson 3 21111012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 3 1100 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Jun 12 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian region
during the UT day, 23 June. Expect an increase to Unsettled levels
in geomagnetic activity with isolated cases of Active levels
today 24 June due to CME effects. Tomorrow, 25 June, expect Quiet
to Unsettled levels of activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
25 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
26 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs
below those based on the monthly T index.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jun 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jun 45 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
25 Jun 55 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 22 June
and is current for 23-25 Jun. Depressions up to 45% observed
in the Australian region due to declining EUV levels resulting
from a decrease in active regions on the Sun. There was strong
Spread-F in Darwin ionograms last night. Expect similar conditions
next 24 hours with ionospheric support weakening due to low solar
10.7cm irradiance and possible increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.9E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 41700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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