[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 15 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1929UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours with
an M1.4 flare at 14/1929UT, most likely from the east limb from
which a CME was observed to erupt shortly thereafter. This CME
is not Earth-directed. Solar activity is expected to be low to
moderate for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed mostly varied
in the range 350-400km/s. The IMF BZ component varied between
+/-6nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 22210011
Cocos Island 2 12210010
Darwin 3 22210011
Townsville 4 22211011
Learmonth 4 22211111
Alice Springs 1 12100000
Norfolk Island 3 22110011
Culgoora 3 22110011
Gingin 4 22210111
Camden 3 22210011
Canberra 3 22210000
Launceston 4 22220111
Hobart 3 12220000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 11310000
Casey 6 33211111
Mawson 17 54322141
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2101 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 5 Quiet
16 Jun 5 Quiet
17 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian region
during the last 24 hours. There were unsettled to minor storm
periods in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected for 15-17 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Short-wave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 13
June and is current for 14-16 Jun. MUF depressions were observed
in Northern Australia over the last 24 hours. Otherwise, MUFs
were near monthly predicted values. MUFs are expected to be near
to predicted monthly values over the next 3 days, with some mild
depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 45900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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