[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 14 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.6 0756UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with C-class flares from several regions and an M2 flare from
region 2087 (S18E41). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. A
large CME from 12-Jun appears to be directed too far south to
reach Earth. Solar activity is expected to be moderate over the
next 3 days, with a chance of X-class events. Increasing low-energy
proton flux suggests the possible arrival of remnants of the
slow 10-Jun CME on 14-Jun. The solar wind speed hovered around
350km/s, while the IMF Bz component fluctuated between -6/+7nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 3 11101112
Learmonth 1 10201000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 1 11000011
Culgoora 2 11100111
Gingin 0 11000000
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 1 11001010
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 11111010
Mawson 4 11111113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1101 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active at high latitudes
15 Jun 5 Quiet
16 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian and
Antarctic regions over the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to active
periods are possible at high latitudes on 14-Jun with the arrival
of the slow 10-Jun CME. Quiet conditions are expected on 15-16
Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions are possible at high latitudes
on 14 Jun if geomagnetic activity increases due to CME arrival.
Short-wave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild MUF depressions were observed in the Niue Island
region and in Northern Australia. Otherwise, MUFs were near monthly
predicted values. MUFs are expected to be near to predicted monthly
values over the next 3 days, with some mild depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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