[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 2 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 01 June. Two
C-class X-ray flares were observed during the day, the largest
was a C2.4-class flare occurring at 01/0137UT from active region
2079. Expect solar activity to remain Low for the next 3 days.
The solar wind remained light over the last 24 hours ranging
between 320 and 280 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF varied
between +6/-4nT during the last 24 hours. Region 2056 (N4) which
previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 1 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11120100
Cocos Island 1 1012000-
Darwin 3 11220101
Townsville 4 12220111
Learmonth 2 11120100
Alice Springs 3 1122010-
Norfolk Island 1 11010000
Culgoora 2 11120100
Gingin 1 1011010-
Camden 2 11120101
Canberra 0 00010000
Launceston 2 11120100
Hobart 1 10110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 0000000-
Casey 2 1111011-
Mawson 3 1121011-
Davis 3 01210031
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2100 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 4 Quiet
03 Jun 4 Quiet
04 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet in the Australian
and Antarctic regions during the UT day, 01 June. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions to prevail for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 60 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
03 Jun 60 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
04 Jun 60 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 30 May
and is current for 31 May to 2 Jun. Variable depressions to 40%
observed in the Australian region due to declining EUV levels
resulting from a decrease in active regions on the Sun. Expect
similar conditions over the next three days. Note MUFs are expected
to remain lower than predicted due to this decrease in EUV.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 22500 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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