[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 14 issued 2331 UT on 31 May 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 1 09:31:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 104/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 31 May. Two C-class
X-ray flares were observed. Expect solar activity to remain Very
Low to Low for the next 3 days. The solar wind remained light
over the last 24 hours decreasing from 370 and 310 km/s and the
Bz component of the IMF was oriented mostly northward during
this period. Region 2056 (N4) which previously produced M-flare(s)
is due to return around 1 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11000100
Cocos Island 1 11000100
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 2 21100111
Learmonth 1 21000100
Alice Springs 2 21100100
Norfolk Island 1 11000011
Culgoora 2 22000001
Gingin 0 11000000
Camden 1 12000100
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 0 11000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12101000
Mawson 2 22110000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 1122 2242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 2 Quiet
02 Jun 4 Quiet
03 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian and
Antarctic region during the UT day, 31 May. Expect mostly Quiet
conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 65 15 to 35% below predicted monthly values
02 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
35%
03 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
35%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 30 May
and is current for 31 May to 2 Jun. Variable depressions to 40%
observed in the Australian region as EUV levels decline due to
a decrease in sunspot numbers. Expect similar conditions over
the next three days. Note MUFs are expected to remain lower than
predicted due to this decrease in EUV.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 30800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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