[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jul 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 25 09:30:28 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jul             26 Jul             27 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a single C-class event from region 2121 (N07E45). No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed. Activity for the next 3 days is expected 
to be low. The solar wind varied between 300-410 km/s and is 
currently around 320 km/s. The IMF Bz component varied between 
+/-5 nT. An equatorial coronal hole is expected to rotate into 
a geoeffective position during 26-Jul.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121011
      Cocos Island         2   11120010
      Darwin               3   12121011
      Townsville           4   12121012
      Learmonth            2   01221010
      Alice Springs        4   221210--
      Norfolk Island       2   11110021
      Culgoora             3   11121011
      Gingin               4   121220--
      Camden               3   11121011
      Canberra             1   01110000
      Launceston           3   12122010
      Hobart               1   01111000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00002000
      Casey                4   13211110
      Mawson               5   23220002

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   1010 1132     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jul     6    Quiet
26 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Some unsettled periods were observed 
in Antarctica. Conditions are expected to be quiet on 25-Jul 
and quiet to unsettled on 26-27 Jul, due to the effects of an 
equatorial coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-fair
26 Jul      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-fair
27 Jul      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jul    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jul    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jul    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
27 Jul    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 23 July 
and is current for 24-26 Jul. MUFs were depressed over much of 
the Australian region over the last 24 hours, with some nighttime 
enhancements. Depressed MUFs are likely for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 318 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    30100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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