[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jul 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 24 09:30:17 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jul             25 Jul             26 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Some growth in a spot group 
in the southeast. Activity for the next 3 days is expected to 
be very low to low. The solar wind varied between 300-350 km/s. 
The IMF Bz component was positive for much of the UT day, then 
varying between +/-4 nT from around 17 UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100121
      Cocos Island         2   11100121
      Darwin               3   12100122
      Townsville           3   21100122
      Learmonth            4   11100132
      Alice Springs        2   10000121
      Norfolk Island       3   13100011
      Culgoora             2   11100112
      Gingin               2   10000122
      Camden               1   11000111
      Canberra             1   10000111
      Launceston           1   11000111
      Hobart               1   00000111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000010
      Casey                3   12100122
      Mawson              18   21110156

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   3110 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours, with some unsettled conditions 
in the last few hours and storm level conditions developing in 
Antarctica. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 24-25 
Jul, returning to quiet by 26-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-fair
25 Jul      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-fair
26 Jul      Normal-poor    Normal-poor    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jul    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jul    45    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
25 Jul    45    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
26 Jul    45    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 23 July 
and is current for 24-26 Jul. MUFs were depressed throughout 
the entire Australasian region for most of the day, more pronounced 
at low latitudes. Nighttime enhancements were observed in Perth. 
Depressed MUFs are likely for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    58700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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