[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jul 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 16 09:30:26 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during 15 July with a single 
C1.2 flare from AR2109 which is just rotating off the disc leaving 
only three or four small diffuse spot groups. Conditions are 
likely to remain Very Low to Low for the next two days. Solar 
wind speed rose slowly over the UT day from a low 370km/s to 
a moderate ~450km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field north-south 
(IMF Bz) was mainly in the neutral +/-5nT range with a brief 
excursion southwards to near -10nT, conducive to merging with 
the geomagnetic field at ~05UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11212210
      Cocos Island         3   11212110
      Darwin               4   21212111
      Townsville           5   21212211
      Learmonth            5   21222210
      Alice Springs        4   11212210
      Norfolk Island       4   23111010
      Culgoora             4   11222111
      Gingin               5   21222220
      Camden               4   11112211
      Canberra             3   11112210
      Launceston           5   12222210
      Hobart               4   11222210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   00032100
      Casey                9   33322221
      Mawson              12   32322134

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8   1011 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul     5    Quiet
17 Jul     5    Quiet
18 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during 14 July, as 
solar wind speed was low to moderate and the interplanetary magnetic 
field north-south (IMF Bz) was mainly in the neutral +/-5nT range. 
There are no major spot groups on the solar disc so, in the absence 
of an erupting filament, coronal mass ejections are not expected 
in the next 2-3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jul    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
17 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
18 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs were variable throughout the northern Australasian 
region and low latitudes during 15 July. Conditions in those 
regions were mostly depressed due to the lack of ionising EUV 
and X-rays from the low spot count on the solar disc. This is 
likely to continue for the next 2-3 days. There were some local 
enhancements at low latitudes and spread F observed,suggesting 
activity in the equatorial anomaly/fountain, probably due to 
thermospheric winds, as geomagnetic activity has been Quiet.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:    36500 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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