[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 16 09:30:26 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during 15 July with a single
C1.2 flare from AR2109 which is just rotating off the disc leaving
only three or four small diffuse spot groups. Conditions are
likely to remain Very Low to Low for the next two days. Solar
wind speed rose slowly over the UT day from a low 370km/s to
a moderate ~450km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field north-south
(IMF Bz) was mainly in the neutral +/-5nT range with a brief
excursion southwards to near -10nT, conducive to merging with
the geomagnetic field at ~05UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 11212210
Cocos Island 3 11212110
Darwin 4 21212111
Townsville 5 21212211
Learmonth 5 21222210
Alice Springs 4 11212210
Norfolk Island 4 23111010
Culgoora 4 11222111
Gingin 5 21222220
Camden 4 11112211
Canberra 3 11112210
Launceston 5 12222210
Hobart 4 11222210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 00032100
Casey 9 33322221
Mawson 12 32322134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 1011 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 5 Quiet
17 Jul 5 Quiet
18 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during 14 July, as
solar wind speed was low to moderate and the interplanetary magnetic
field north-south (IMF Bz) was mainly in the neutral +/-5nT range.
There are no major spot groups on the solar disc so, in the absence
of an erupting filament, coronal mass ejections are not expected
in the next 2-3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were variable throughout the northern Australasian
region and low latitudes during 15 July. Conditions in those
regions were mostly depressed due to the lack of ionising EUV
and X-rays from the low spot count on the solar disc. This is
likely to continue for the next 2-3 days. There were some local
enhancements at low latitudes and spread F observed,suggesting
activity in the equatorial anomaly/fountain, probably due to
thermospheric winds, as geomagnetic activity has been Quiet.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 36500 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list