[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 15 09:30:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low during 14 July. The
two larger active regions AR2108 and 2109 are rotating off the
limb, leaving only three or four small diffuse spot groups. Conditions
are likely to remain Very Low to Low for the next two days. A
weak solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field disturbance,
possibly from a slow July 10th CME, crossed the L1 point at ~1330UT,
with a northward IMF and ~50km/s rise in speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 11213321
Cocos Island 6 11113321
Darwin 7 11223321
Townsville 7 11223321
Learmonth 8 10223421
Alice Springs 7 10223321
Norfolk Island 5 3-112211
Culgoora 7 11223321
Gingin 5 10212311
Camden 5 11213211
Canberra 4 11112211
Launceston 5 11213211
Hobart 3 11112210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 6 22221122
Mawson 9 21213214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1112 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 5 Quiet
16 Jul 5 Quiet
17 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled during
14 July. Unsettled conditions were due to a weak sudden
impulse recorded across the Australasian region ground magnetometer
array at 1443UT, from the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field
disturbance observed at the L1 point at ~1330UT, possibly from a July 10th
slow Coronal Mass Ejection.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 75 About 5% below predicted monthly values
17 Jul 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed throughout the Australian region
during nighttime hours 14 July. This is due to the lack of ionising
EUV and X-rays from the low spot count on the solar disc, so
the daytime ionisation is weak and nighttime ion-electron recombination
rapidly depletes the ionosphere. This is likely to continue for
the next 2-3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 24200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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