[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jul 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 15 09:30:21 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Very Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jul             16 Jul             17 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low during 14 July. The 
two larger active regions AR2108 and 2109 are rotating off the 
limb, leaving only three or four small diffuse spot groups. Conditions 
are likely to remain Very Low to Low for the next two days. A 
weak solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field disturbance, 
possibly from a slow July 10th CME, crossed the L1 point at ~1330UT, 
with a northward IMF and ~50km/s rise in speed.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11213321
      Cocos Island         6   11113321
      Darwin               7   11223321
      Townsville           7   11223321
      Learmonth            8   10223421
      Alice Springs        7   10223321
      Norfolk Island       5   3-112211
      Culgoora             7   11223321
      Gingin               5   10212311
      Camden               5   11213211
      Canberra             4   11112211
      Launceston           5   11213211
      Hobart               3   11112210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                6   22221122
      Mawson               9   21213214

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1112 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jul     5    Quiet
16 Jul     5    Quiet
17 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled during 
14 July. Unsettled conditions were due to a weak sudden 
impulse recorded across the Australasian region ground magnetometer 
array at 1443UT, from the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field
disturbance observed at the L1 point at ~1330UT, possibly from a July 10th 
slow Coronal Mass Ejection.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jul    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul    75    About 5% below predicted monthly values
17 Jul    70    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were depressed throughout the Australian region 
during nighttime hours 14 July. This is due to the lack of ionising 
EUV and X-rays from the low spot count on the solar disc, so 
the daytime ionisation is weak and nighttime ion-electron recombination 
rapidly depletes the ionosphere. This is likely to continue for 
the next 2-3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 349 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    24200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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