[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jul 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 12 09:30:18 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Low

Flares: C class flares

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 166/120


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jul             13 Jul             14 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            140/94             135/89

COMMENT: The 10.7 cm solar flux and sunspot number are presently 
declining as major active regions decay and rotate around the 
western limb. Solar flare activity was low for most of 11 July. 
AR 2109 produced a C4.6 flare peaking at 00:44 UT, and another 
weak C class flare is in progress at the time of this report. 
However, new spot regions are developing and an isolated M class 
flare is possible during the next 2 days. None of the recent bright 
CMEs launched in association with M class flares and prominence 
eruptions are Earthward directed, but glancing blows are possible. 
The solar wind speed is presently trending downward toward 350 
km/s. The magnitude of the IMF was about 4 nT during the previous 
24 hours. There were extended intervals of very weak Bz southward 
conditions during 11 July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110010
      Cocos Island         2   12-20010
      Darwin               2   21110011
      Townsville           3   21110112
      Learmonth            2   11210010
      Alice Springs        2   11210010
      Norfolk Island       2   11110011
      Culgoora             3   12110111
      Gingin               1   11110010
      Camden               1   01110110
      Canberra             1   01110010
      Launceston           3   11121120
      Hobart               2   11120010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   00120000
      Casey                3   12111020
      Mawson              20   43222255

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   4331 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jul     6    Quiet
13 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jul     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly 
quiet during the next 3 days. However, intervals of unsettled 
conditions are possible on 13 July due to the glancing blow of 
a CME. Other weak, unexpected CME and prominence eruption impacts 
are possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jul    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jul    90    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul    85    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were mostly near 
predicted monthly values throughout the Australian region. Conditions 
were enhanced by up to 40% during 04-13 UT at Cocos Island. Conditions 
were mildly depressed during the night at Darwin, Learmonth and 
Townsville.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    80300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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