[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 12 09:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: The 10.7 cm solar flux and sunspot number are presently
declining as major active regions decay and rotate around the
western limb. Solar flare activity was low for most of 11 July.
AR 2109 produced a C4.6 flare peaking at 00:44 UT, and another
weak C class flare is in progress at the time of this report.
However, new spot regions are developing and an isolated M class
flare is possible during the next 2 days. None of the recent bright
CMEs launched in association with M class flares and prominence
eruptions are Earthward directed, but glancing blows are possible.
The solar wind speed is presently trending downward toward 350
km/s. The magnitude of the IMF was about 4 nT during the previous
24 hours. There were extended intervals of very weak Bz southward
conditions during 11 July.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11110010
Cocos Island 2 12-20010
Darwin 2 21110011
Townsville 3 21110112
Learmonth 2 11210010
Alice Springs 2 11210010
Norfolk Island 2 11110011
Culgoora 3 12110111
Gingin 1 11110010
Camden 1 01110110
Canberra 1 01110010
Launceston 3 11121120
Hobart 2 11120010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00120000
Casey 3 12111020
Mawson 20 43222255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 4331 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 6 Quiet
13 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly
quiet during the next 3 days. However, intervals of unsettled
conditions are possible on 13 July due to the glancing blow of
a CME. Other weak, unexpected CME and prominence eruption impacts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were mostly near
predicted monthly values throughout the Australian region. Conditions
were enhanced by up to 40% during 04-13 UT at Cocos Island. Conditions
were mildly depressed during the night at Darwin, Learmonth and
Townsville.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 80300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list