[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 11 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Moderate
Flares: M1.5 Event peaking at 22:34 UT
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 177/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 160/114 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate. AR 2113 produced a
C7.4 flare peaking at 21:13 UT on 10 July. AR 2106 produced a
C5.7 flare peaking at 02:53 UT, and then an M1.5 flare peaking
at 22:34 UT, the largest flare of the previous 24 hours. AR 2106
is located near the NW limb. SOHO LASCO images for this event
are not available at the time of this report. The partial halo
CME associated with the large filament eruption of 9 July is
heading NE and may glance the geomagnetic field on 13 July. GONG
Learmonth H alpha images recorded the lift-off of a large prominence
above AR 2104 during 04-06 UT on 10 July. AR 2104 is located
close to the western limb. SOHO LASCO images subsequently recorded
a bright partial halo CME heading toward the west. This CME may
glance the geomagnetic field during 13-14 July. The solar wind
speed is presently near 380 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF slowly
declined from about 9 nT to 4 nT during the previous 24 hours.
Bz has been fluctuating mostly in the range -5 nT to +5 nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 22201111
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 2 21101101
Townsville 4 22202111
Learmonth 4 22201111
Alice Springs 2 21101001
Norfolk Island 3 22201110
Culgoora 4 22201111
Gingin 3 22111100
Camden 4 22201111
Canberra 2 12201100
Launceston 5 22212111
Hobart 3 12211100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 11212000
Casey 4 13212100
Mawson 13 44322213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2121 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 6 Quiet
12 Jul 5 Quiet
13 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain
mostly quiet during the next 3 days. However, intervals
of unsettled conditions are likely due to glancing blows
from the recent prominence eruptions which are not
Earthward directed.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were enhanced by
up to 40% during the early morning hours at Australian region
mid-latitude stations.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 61600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list