[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 26 10:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Very low to low
Flares: Low level C class flare
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 130/085
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Very low to low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/085 130/085 130/085
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low to low during 25 Jan UT.
A C1.5 solar X ray flare peaked at 23:44 UT on 24 Jan and a C1.0
flare peaked at 02:32 UT on 25 Jan. More low level C-class flares
are possible today. None of the complex sequence of bright CMEs
which left the solar limb during the previous 24 hours are
Earthward directed. The prominent H alpha solar filament now
rotating toward the western limb has been active, but remains
attached to the Sun. The magnitude of the IMF was about 5 nT
during 25 Jan. The Bz component has been fluctuating in the
range -5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed has been in the
range 350-400 km/s and was about 350 km/s at 13 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 12211112
Cocos Island 3 21110201
Darwin 2 11100112
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 4 11211211
Alice Springs 2 12100111
Norfolk Island - --------
Culgoora 4 12201122
Gingin 4 21201202
Camden 4 12210121
Canberra 4 12210121
Launceston 5 12211222
Hobart 4 12211112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 12101200
Casey 14 34422223
Mawson 19 43222345
Davis 11 33322232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg N/A
Planetary N/A
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg N/A
Planetary N/A 1100 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 4 Quiet
27 Jan 4 Quiet
28 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 25 Jan UT.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet during the
next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was mostly enhanced
throughout the Australian region during 25 Jan. The ionospheric
propagation support was strongly enhanced at Darwin and Townsville
for most of the UT day. Propagation conditions are expected to
remain enhanced to strongly enhanced today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 71800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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