[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 25 10:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Very low
Flares: B class flares.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Very low to low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during 24 Jan UT. There
were only B-class solar X-ray flares, the largest a B9.2 event
peaking at 10:37 UT. A C-class flare is possible today. The chance
of an M class flare is small today. SOHO LASCO coronographs recorded
a bright CME leaving the solar limb toward the SSE commencing
during 07 UT on 24 Jan. This event will not be geoeffective.
A major H alpha solar filament has rotated into a geoeffective
position. The magnitude of the IMF was mostly less than 6 nT
during 24 Jan. The Bz component was predominantly negative in
the range -5 to -2 nT up until 04 UT. Since then it has been
predominantly positive in the range +2 to +5 nT. The solar wind
speed has been essentially level in the range 350-400 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 22111011
Cocos Island 4 12-31000
Darwin 3 22001002
Townsville 4 22101112
Learmonth 2 22001110
Alice Springs 3 22101002
Norfolk Island 1 1-0-----
Culgoora 3 22111011
Gingin 2 22001010
Camden 3 12111011
Canberra 2 12100001
Launceston 5 22211112
Hobart 3 22111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 12000010
Casey 15 35432111
Mawson 10 44222210
Davis 9 34222210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2121 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 4 Quiet
26 Jan 4 Quiet
27 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 24 Jan UT.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet during the
next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was enhanced throughout
the northern Australian region and near normal to enhanced at
Australian midlatitude and Antarctic stations during 24 Jan
UT. Propagation conditions are expected to be enhanced to strongly
enhanced throughout most of the region today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 194000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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