[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 19 10:30:16 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 18 January.
Expect solar activity to remain Low today, 19 January. The largest
flare of the period was a C6.0-class flare occurring at 1204UT
from active region 1959(S26E64). The solar wind speed decreased
from 350 to 300 km/s, but then step up to about 325 km/s at approximately
1900UT. The IMF Bz component has remained in the range +2/-3nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11000011
Cocos Island 0 01000010
Darwin 1 10000021
Townsville 1 11000020
Learmonth 2 10000121
Alice Springs 0 10000010
Norfolk Island 1 10000011
Culgoora 2 11000021
Gingin 1 11000010
Camden 1 01100011
Canberra 0 01000010
Launceston 2 11100121
Hobart 1 01100010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 23321121
Mawson 4 33100010
Davis 5 23211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 6 Quiet
20 Jan 6 Quiet
21 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region during
the UT day, 18 January were Quiet. Conditions in the Antarctic
region were mostly Quiet. Expect similar conditions today, 19
January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 110 Near to 10-20% above predicted monthly values
20 Jan 110 Near to 10-20% above predicted monthly values
21 Jan 110 Near to 10-20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted values to enhanced across the
Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 24400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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