[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 18 10:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 17 January.
Expect solar activity to remain Low today, 18 January. The largest
flare of the period was a C8.9-class flare occurring at 1608UT.
Emerging flux region observed at N12E50. The solar wind speed
has gradually declined from 380 and 340 km/s over the last 24
hours and the IMF Bz component has remained in the range +/-4nT.
Noted partial halo commencing at 16/2312UT, however appears to
be directed away from the Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11001011
Cocos Island 1 11000001
Darwin 2 11000012
Townsville 3 21011022
Learmonth 2 11001002
Alice Springs 1 01001001
Norfolk Island 2 11001021
Culgoora 1 11001011
Gingin 2 11001102
Camden 1 11001011
Canberra 1 01001011
Launceston 3 11112111
Hobart 1 11001001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 10 14331212
Mawson 6 22111223
Davis 7 22322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0010 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 6 Quiet
19 Jan 6 Quiet
20 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region during
the UT day, 17 January were Quiet. Conditions in the Antarctic
region were mostly Quiet. Expect similar conditions today, 18
January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 110 Near to 10-20% above predicted monthly values
19 Jan 110 Near to 10-20% above predicted monthly values
20 Jan 110 Near to 10-20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted values to enhanced across the
Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 51300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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