[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 14 issued 2352 UT on 19 Feb 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 20 10:52:03 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity for 19Feb was Low with the largest notable
event being a C3.0 flare from region 1982 (S11E47). Solar wind
speed (Vsw) was ~400km/s at 00UT followed by a moderate shock
that was observed at 0309UT resulting in a step increase to ~460km/s.
Vsw continued to gradually increase over the UT day to be ~510km/s
at the time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected to range
between 400km/s-500km/s over the next 24 hours. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was southward
between 00UT and 09UT reaching a maximum of -15nT before swinging
northward and reduced in magnitude to be currently 0nT. There
is a chance of another CME arrival from a Feb 18 eruption that
may arrive late in the UT day 20Feb or early 21Feb. Solar activity
is expected to be Low for the next 3 days with the slight chance
of an M-class flare. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion
enhancement event beginning 19/1235UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 19 23445322
Cocos Island 11 23333321
Darwin 13 23334322
Townsville 20 24445322
Learmonth 19 34335323
Alice Springs 16 23335322
Norfolk Island 17 23345322
Culgoora 19 23445322
Gingin 18 33335323
Camden 23 24455322
Canberra 21 23455322
Launceston 26 24555323
Hobart 23 24455322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
Macquarie Island 67 36686422
Casey 21 35344323
Mawson - --------
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 53
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1011 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
22 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Minor Storm conditions observed over the last
24 hours due to CME arrival. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be Quiet to Unsettled over the next 24 hours. Unsettled to
Active conditions for 21Feb due to possible CME arrival late
in the UT day 20Feb or early 21Feb. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
for 22Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced HF conditions observed for Southern AUS/NZ
and Northern AUS regions during local day. Depressed MUF's observed
for Southern AUS/NZ regions during local night and disturbed
ionospheric conditions for Antarctic regions due to geomagnetic
storm activity. MUF's are expected to range from near monthly
predicted values to enhanced by ~15% for Northern AUS regions
over the next 24 hours. Depressed MUF's to near monthly predicted
values expected for Southern AUS/NZ regions for the next 24 hours
and continued disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Normal
to enhanced ionospheric support expected for 21Feb-22Feb for
Southern AUS/NZ and Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Further
short-wave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 56700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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