[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 17 10:30:35 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0926UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate over the last 24 hours.
There were no significant CMEs over the period. Solar activity
is expected to be at Low to Moderate levels with isolated M/X-class
flares possible. The effects of the CME arrival on 15-Feb persisted
into 16-Feb, with elevated solar wind speed and total magnetic
field, however the IMF Bz was predominantly northward-directed
throughout the day limiting its impact on geomagnetic conditions.
Two intervals of southward-directed IMF were observed, from 15/2100UT-16/2400UT
and 16/1400UT-16/1800UT. Expect the CME effects to subside over
17-Feb. A coronal hole high speed stream may mildly elevate solar
wind speeds later 17-Feb and into 18-Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 20 44334432
Cocos Island 14 34323332
Darwin 21 44334433
Townsville 21 44334433
Learmonth 27 55335333
Alice Springs 20 44334432
Norfolk Island 15 34423322
Culgoora 20 44334432
Gingin 20 53334333
Camden 20 44334432
Canberra 17 44333422
Launceston 24 45434432
Hobart 22 45433432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Macquarie Island 17 33224532
Casey 37 56554333
Mawson 41 75333445
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 0000 2224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 12 Unsettled
18 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field ranged from Quiet to Active over
UT day, as a result of the ongoing effects of the CMEs that arrived
on 15-Feb. Two periods over Active conditions were observed at
midlatitude sites over the day, from 00-06UT and 14-17UT in response
to intervals of southward-directed IMF in the solar wind. Expect
mostly Unsettled geomagnetic conditions next two days, with isolated
Active periods possible 17-Feb due to ongoing CME effects. Minor
Storm periods possible at high latitudes 17-Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 85 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 8 was issued
on 13 February and is current for 15-17 Feb. The ionosphere in
the Australian region was enhanced over the past 24 hours. MUFs
were generally above predicted monthly values, however some degraded
HF conditions were again observed at S.Aus locations overnight.
MUFs on 17-Feb are expected to range from near predicted monthly
values to mildly depressed, with depressions more likely during
the day, at S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations. Further short-wave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 78000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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