[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 16 10:30:36 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low over the last 24 hours,
with no significant X-ray flares or CMEs over the period. Solar
activity is expected to be at Low to Moderate levels with isolated
M/X-class flares possible. A moderate shock was observed in the
solar wind at 1235UT on 15 Feb, likely the arrival of combined
CMEs from 11-12-Feb. The solar wind speed jumped to 450km/s with
an associated increase in total magnetic field and plasma density.
The increased magnetic field has been purely northward-directed
since arrival of the CME limiting its impact on geomagnetic conditions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 21003333
Cocos Island 6 12003232
Darwin 8 21103233
Townsville 10 21004333
Learmonth 13 21105333
Alice Springs 9 21004233
Norfolk Island 6 21003232
Culgoora 7 11003332
Gingin 7 21003233
Camden 8 11103333
Canberra 7 11003323
Launceston 8 11103333
Hobart 6 11103322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 11002321
Casey 13 34314222
Mawson 6 21104211
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 0000 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Feb 12 Unsettled
18 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the first half
of the UT, until the arrival of a shock in the solar wind. An
associated weak (13nT) impulse was observed in Australian region
magnetometer data at 1318UT, after which geomagnetic conditions
increased to mostly Unsettled with an isolated Active period
12-15UT. Expect Unsettled to Active conditions at most locations
16-Feb, with Minor Storm periods at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
17 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 8 was issued
on 13 February and is current for 15-17 Feb. IPS SWF HF Communications
Warning 9 was issued on 14 February and is current for 15-16
Feb. The ionosphere in the Australian region was enhanced over
the past 24 hours. MUFs were generally above predicted monthly
values, however some degraded HF conditions were observed at
S.Aus locations overnight. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values 16-Feb, with some localised depressions
to 30%, particularly at S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations. Further
short-wave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 39000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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