[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 11 10:30:38 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Previously
active regions 1967 and 1968 have rotated off the west limb.
Four active regions on the disk (numbered 1973-76) are growing,
but otherwise remain stable. C-class flares are expected 11-Feb
with a small chance of an M-class flare. The solar wind speed
increased over the period under the influence of a weak coronal
hole high speed stream, and remains elevated above 500km/s, however
the IMF Bz component is relatively stable. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated next two days (11-12 Feb).
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22110132
Cocos Island 3 21110022
Darwin 4 22110122
Townsville 7 22111133
Learmonth 7 32111132
Alice Springs 5 21110132
Norfolk Island 5 21110132
Culgoora 6 22210132
Gingin 8 32111142
Camden 6 22210132
Canberra 5 21210132
Launceston 9 32221233
Hobart 7 22220232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 22120221
Casey 22 45532233
Mawson 24 54421254
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 3330 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Feb 5 Quiet
13 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet over the
last 24 hours, with isolated Active periods at high latitudes.
Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled over the next
24 hours (11-Feb) with Active periods at high latitudes, before
a return to Quiet levels 12-Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Feb 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was normal to
enhanced over the last 24 hours. MUFs were generally above predicted
monthly values at all locations, and 15-30% enhanced overnight.
Mildly increased geomagnetic activity overnight and observed
MUF depressions at local dawn 11-Feb at east coast sites suggest
some mild (<20%) MUF depressions may be experienced during the
day 11-Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 62500 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list