[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 10 10:30:46 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1617UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Moderate levels with a long duration
M1 flare produced by region 1976(S15E66) which has just rotated
around the eastern limb. There was a large CME in association
with this event, however it is not expected to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed remains elevated around 450 km/s. The IMF
Bz component has been sustained southward by between -5 and -10
nT for much of the last 24 hours. Solar wind conditions are expected
to return to normal over the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 32213242
Cocos Island 10 32113241
Darwin 11 32213242
Townsville 11 32213242
Learmonth 14 32213352
Alice Springs 13 32213252
Norfolk Island 8 22213132
Culgoora 10 2221324-
Gingin 13 32213252
Camden 27 -4----4-
Canberra 10 22213242
Launceston 16 32313353
Hobart 10 3200-342
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
Macquarie Island 14 22404432
Casey 20 34434243
Mawson 45 45523475
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 19 4532 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb 5 Quiet
12 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Unsettled with
a brief Active period around 18-20UT. Conditions are expected
to remain somewhat Unsettled over the next 24 hours before returning
to Quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 100
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions of up to 20% in the MUF were observed in
the Australian region during local daytime. This was due to unexpectedly
high geomagnetic activity following a minor CME impact. Conditions
have improved overnight and the dawn measurements on the east
cost indicate daytime MUFs should return to predicted monthly
values or better today. A high level of solar ionising EUV radiation
should ensure the ionosphere recovers quickly to the previously
observed enhanced MUF.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 39000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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