[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 01 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 2 10:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0126UT possible lower West Pacific
M3.0 0724UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 177/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 185/138
COMMENT: Background x-ray flux remains elevated. Regions 11967
(S13 E11) and 11968 (N10 E14) have shown growth in interior spot
count with AR 11967 the source of the M flares. There is still
the chance of high solar activity. LASCO and STEREO images show
a CME associated with the M1 flare from AR 11968 31/1542 UT with
most of the mass directed north. On 1 Feb, two other CMEs were
associated with C-class events from AR 11967 but do not appear
to have major Earth directed components. A filament liftoff was
observed in H-alpha images ~0130 UT from near the southwest limb
with no associated CME. ACE observations show the solar wind
undisturbed although there was a slight increase in activity
from about 0530 UT. From then, the north-south IMF was mostly
southward but only to -5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11101222
Cocos Island 2 11100102
Darwin 5 21111222
Townsville 6 11202223
Learmonth 4 21111212
Alice Springs 3 10101222
Norfolk Island 2 -0001122
Culgoora 1 -010----
Gingin 3 11101212
Camden 4 10112222
Canberra 3 10101222
Launceston 5 11112222
Hobart 4 11102212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 00001111
Casey 9 13321223
Mawson 12 22112235
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 18 Quiet to unsettled then unsettled to active with
isolated minor storm levels.
03 Feb 12 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels.
04 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 31 January and
is current for 2-3 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are likely to decrease on 2 and 3 Feb. Propagation
conditions may also be degraded during this time as the ionosphere
becomes disturbed.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Feb 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Feb 125 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 30
January and is current for 31 Jan to 2 Feb. On 2 and 3 Feb ionospheric
propagation support is expected to be good although MUFs are
likely to be lower than last few days. Degradations in conditions
may occur due to sporadic E and spread F.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 22200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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