[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 1 10:30:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1542UT possible lower South American/Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Background x-ray flux remains elevated. AR 11968 (N10
E29) produced the only significant flare. This region appears
stable. AR 11967 (S13 E30) showed emerging interior spots. Chance
of high M or an X-class flare. Two minor CMEs but neither Earth
directed. ACE observations show the solar wind undisturbed. There
is a southern hemisphere coronal hole with leading edge at 20
degrees west which is likely to increase wind speed moderately
late 2 or 3 Feb although its effect may be masked by the CME
event that is expected to arrive at Earth on 2 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 2 11110012
Townsville 3 11110022
Learmonth 2 10111002
Alice Springs 1 11110001
Norfolk Island 2 11100012
Culgoora 6 111-3---
Gingin 1 11010001
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 1 10110000
Launceston 2 -1210001
Hobart 2 01210001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 10 34431000
Mawson 3 21111102
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2200 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Feb 18 Quiet to Active. Isolated minor storm levels.
03 Feb 12 Quiet to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 31 January and
is current for 2-3 Feb. Increase in activity due to CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are likely to decrease on 2 and 3 Feb. Propagation
conditions may also be degraded during this time as the ionosphere
becomes disturbed.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
02 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Feb 115 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 30
January and is current for 31 Jan to 2 Feb. Ionospheric propagation
support is expected to be good with near normal to enhanced frequencies
1 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 33200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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