[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 02 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 3 10:30:33 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: A number of C-class flares were observed over the UT
day. The largest were a C5 level flare in Active Region 2217
(S16W40) peaking at 0805UT and a C6 level flare in AR 2222 (S20W01)
peaking at 1555UT. A filament lift-off was observed on the West
limb at around 01UT. No significant CME was observed in LASCO
C3 imagery following these events. Solar wind velocity declined
steadily over the UT day from 600 to 450 km/s. The IMF Bz component
showed moderate fluctuations (+/-10nT) early in the UT day becoming
stable and mildly negative (-2nT) later in the UT day. The Earth
is currently under the influence of a mild coronal hole wind
stream which is expected to persist for the next two to three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 23213222
Cocos Island 6 12211231
Darwin 8 32212232
Townsville 11 43213222
Learmonth 11 33223232
Alice Springs 7 23212222
Norfolk Island 7 23212222
Culgoora 9 23313222
Gingin 12 33223332
Camden 11 23323322
Canberra 11 23323322
Launceston - --------
Hobart 13 34323322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
Macquarie Island 14 33334321
Casey 28 46533242
Mawson 34 45534363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 91 (Minor storm)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 91 (Minor storm)
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 1211 2224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled at low
to mid latitudes, and Unsettled to Active at high latitudes.
Brief Minor Storm intervals were observed at some high latitude
stations. Solar wind parameters declined over the UT day Dec
02, but the Earth remains under the influence of a mild coronal
hole wind stream which is expected to persist for the next two
to three days. Expect Unsettled intervals days one and two, becoming
mostly Quiet day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% around local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Variable with periods of disturbance.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions mostly near predicted
monthly values. Mild to moderate disturbances observed S Aus/Antarctic
region following elevated geomagnetic activity. Widespread mild
depressions observed after local dawn today. Expect occasional
periods of disturbance S Aus/Antarctic regions next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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