[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 01 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 2 10:30:32 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0642UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: An isolated M1.8 level flare of moderate duration occurred
in Active Region 2222 (S20E06) at 0641UT. No associated radio
sweep activity was observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph.
No CME event could be observed in LASCO imagery. There are eight
numbered regions on the visible solar disk and most appear stable.
Several regions have the potential for further isolated C- to
M-class flare activity. Solar wind speed was steady at 400 km/s
until about 15UT after which it increased to 600 km/s at the
time of report issue. Since 15UT the IMF Bz component has trended
moderately negative to -10nT. The elevated solar wind parameters
indicate onset of an anticipated coronal hole wind stream which
is expected to persist for 1-2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 22222234
Cocos Island 8 22222223
Darwin 10 22222234
Townsville 11 23222234
Learmonth 10 32222233
Alice Springs 9 22222224
Norfolk Island 8 22222223
Culgoora 10 22222234
Gingin 9 22222233
Camden 11 22322234
Canberra 11 22322234
Launceston - --------
Hobart 12 23322234
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
Macquarie Island 9 22213124
Casey 35 46633344
Mawson 21 34423335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 72 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1111 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 12 Unsettled
03 Dec 12 Unsettled
04 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet at low
to mid latitudes with Unsettled intervals at some stations. Unsettled
to Active conditions were observed at high latitudes. With the
onset of an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream during
the second half of the UT day Dec 01, sustained negative IMF
Bz component has resulted in Unsettled to Active geomagnetic
conditions throughout the region. Expect periods of moderately
elevated geomagnetic activity next two days, declining on day
three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Briefly depressed 10% 09-13UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values with variable
enhancements/depressions to 15%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable localised enhancements/depressions observed
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Generally slightly enhanced conditions
observed S Aus/Antarctic regions. Elevated geomagnetic activity
next two to three days may result in periods of disturbance S
Aus/Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 95500 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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