[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 22 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 23 09:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0629UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Seven spot regions with AR 12146 (N08 W04) and 12148
(N07 E15) contributing to the numerous C-class flares with AR
12149 (N11 E62) the most active region, also producing the single
M flare. SDO images indicate there may have been eruptions associated
with two C-class flares from AR 12146 at 1027 and 1552 UT. Type
II emissions (associated with flare related CMEs) were observed
with these two flares along with a C-class flare at 0006 UT from
AR 12148. The limited SOHO images show a CME on the west limb
at ~1242 UT that may be associated with the 1027 UT flare. If
Earth directed, this may impact on 25/26 Aug. ACE data show solar
wind speed below 380 km/s with the north-south IMF range +/-4
nT. Correction: the M3.4 flare on 21 Aug originated from AR 12149,
not AR 12148.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 12000001
Cocos Island 1 12100000
Darwin 2 12100002
Townsville 3 22100012
Learmonth 1 12100000
Alice Springs 1 12000001
Norfolk Island 1 02000001
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 1 12000000
Camden 1 02001001
Canberra 1 02000001
Launceston 2 12001001
Hobart 2 12001001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 02001000
Casey 4 23210000
Mawson 8 24201023
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 3323 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 5 Quiet
24 Aug 5 Quiet
25 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Fair-normal Normal Fair-normal
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-01, 03-13 UT.
Depressed 20-40% 02, 14-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 20-40% 05-13, 19 UT. Near predicted
monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 20-40% 14-21 UT at Darwin. Depressed
20-30% 02-03, 08-15,17-23 UT at Townsville.
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 20-25%
08-12, 21-23 UT. Depressions of 20-35% at Learmonth
11-18 UT. Depressions of 25-40% at Hobart 00-14, 16
and 19 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly 20-45% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
24 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
25 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 21
August and is current for 22-24 Aug. Chance of sudden ionospheric
disturbance (SWF) 23-25 Aug. Spread F observed at Hobart 09-20
UT and Townsville 12-17 UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 35300 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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