[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 Aug 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 17 09:30:21 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Aug             18 Aug             19 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
C-class flares from regions 2139 (N12E08) and 2144 (S25W43). 
The filament eruption from 15-Aug could give Earth a glancing 
blow early on 19-Aug. The solar wind has declined to below 300 
km/s and the IMF BZ component has been mostly neutral. Low activity 
is expected for the next 3 days, with a chance of M-class events.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000001
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           2   11000012
      Learmonth            0   01000001
      Alice Springs        0   01000001
      Norfolk Island       1   10000011
      Culgoora             1   11100001
      Gingin               0   00000010
      Camden               1   11000001
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Launceston           1   11000001
      Hobart               1   11000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   23000001
      Mawson               8   21000025
      Davis                1   12000001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              3   1101 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Aug     5    Quiet
18 Aug     5    Quiet
19 Aug    12    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 
to prevail on 17-18 Aug. An increase in plasma density from a 
filament eruption on 15-Aug could lead to more active conditions 
from early 19-Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal-poor    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal-poor    Normal-fair    Normal
18 Aug      Normal-poor    Normal-fair    Normal
19 Aug      Normal-poor    Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Aug    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      68
Aug      91
Sep      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Aug    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
18 Aug    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
19 Aug    50    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 15 August 
and is current for 16-18 Aug. Significant MUF depressions were 
observed across the Australian region. MUF depressions are expected 
to continue for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 356 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    41300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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