[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 17 09:30:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from regions 2139 (N12E08) and 2144 (S25W43).
The filament eruption from 15-Aug could give Earth a glancing
blow early on 19-Aug. The solar wind has declined to below 300
km/s and the IMF BZ component has been mostly neutral. Low activity
is expected for the next 3 days, with a chance of M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 2 11000012
Learmonth 0 01000001
Alice Springs 0 01000001
Norfolk Island 1 10000011
Culgoora 1 11100001
Gingin 0 00000010
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 1 11000001
Hobart 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 23000001
Mawson 8 21000025
Davis 1 12000001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 3 1101 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 5 Quiet
18 Aug 5 Quiet
19 Aug 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
to prevail on 17-18 Aug. An increase in plasma density from a
filament eruption on 15-Aug could lead to more active conditions
from early 19-Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal
18 Aug Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal
19 Aug Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
18 Aug 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
19 Aug 50 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 15 August
and is current for 16-18 Aug. Significant MUF depressions were
observed across the Australian region. MUF depressions are expected
to continue for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 41300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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