[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 Aug 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 15 09:30:26 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. the solar wind speed declined 
from ~400 km/s to ~360 km/s. The IMF Bz component varied between 
+/- 4 nT. Solar activity is expected to be low to very low over 
the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           1   11110001
      Learmonth            1   10110001
      Alice Springs        0   00100000
      Norfolk Island       0   01010000
      Culgoora             1   11110001
      Gingin               0   00000010
      Camden               1   11110001
      Canberra             0   00010001
      Launceston           2   11120001
      Hobart               0   00010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00020000
      Casey                4   23210011
      Mawson               6   22201014
      Davis                7   23311112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug : 
      Darwin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2222 3112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug     5    Quiet
16 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain 
quiet on 14-Aug, with the possibility of some unsettled periods 
on 15-16 Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Aug    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      68
Aug      91
Sep      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug    60    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Aug    65    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Aug    70    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 12 August 
and is current for 13-15 Aug. Enhanced daytime MUFs were observed 
in Niue Island. Variable MUF depressions elsewhere. An expected 
increase in ionising solar radiation could bring MUFs closer 
to predicted monthly values over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    72400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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