[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 10 09:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed during
the last 24 hours. Today's largest event was a C2 flare at 0901
UT from region 2135(N12E22). Solar wind speed mostly stayed around
350 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF varied
between +/-4 nT during this period. No earthward directed CME
was observed today. Solar activity is expected to stay at low
levels with some possibility of isolated M-class event during
the next 3 days. Some strengthening in solar wind stream may
be observed on 10 August due to the possibility of a coronal
hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Norfolk Island 1 11200000
Culgoora 1 11100001
Gingin 0 01100000
Camden 2 01200011
Canberra 0 01100000
Launceston 1 11200000
Hobart 1 01200000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 00210000
Casey 2 12210100
Mawson 4 22111112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3422 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 7 Quiet
11 Aug 5 Quiet
12 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly at Quiet levels
during the last 24 hours. Enhancements to Unsettled levels may
be possible at times on 10 August due to a possible coronal hole
effect. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 11 and 12 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
at low and some mid-latitude locations today. Minor to mild MUF
depressions may continue to be observed on 10 August. HF conditions
are expected to return to more normal values on 11 and 12 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
11 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
in the equatorial and Northern Australian regions with mostly
normal HF conditions otherwise. Minor to mild MUF depressions
may continue to be observed on 10 August. HF conditions are
expected to return to more normal values on 11 and 12 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 86800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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