[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 08 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 9 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Low levels of solar activity have been observed
during the last 24 hours. Today's largest event was a C4
flare at 1701 UT from region 2135(N11E36). Solar wind speed
varied between around 360 to 410 km/s during the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF stayed mostly negative up to around
-5 nT during the first half of the UT day and slightly positive
during most parts of the second half of the UT day. No earthward
directed CME was observed today. There are currently five
sunspot groups on the visible solar disc. Solar activity is
expected to stay at low levels with some possibility of
isolated M-class event during the next 3 days. Some strengthening
in solar wind stream may be observed on 9 and 10 August due
to the possibility of a coronal hole effect.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22231000
Cocos Island 2 21111000
Darwin 4 22221001
Townsville 6 23231001
Learmonth 4 22231000
Alice Springs 5 22231001
Norfolk Island 3 22221000
Culgoora 5 22231001
Gingin 4 22231000
Camden 5 22231001
Canberra 4 12231000
Launceston 4 22231000
Hobart 4 12231000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
Macquarie Island 9 11253000
Casey 6 33222000
Mawson 22 65323112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1211 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 7 Quiet
10 Aug 7 Quiet
11 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly at Quiet to
Unsettled levels during the last 24 hours. Enhancement to
Unsettled levels may continue on 9 and 10 August due to a
possible coronal hole effect. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on 11 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were
observed at low latitude locations today. Normal to fair
HF conditions may be expected on 9 and 10 August. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected on 11 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
10 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
11 Aug 88 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of minor to mild MUF depressions were observed
in Northern Australian regions with normal HF conditions otherwise.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 9 and 10 August.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 11 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 45400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list