[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 14 issued 2334 UT on 26 Apr 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 27 09:34:45 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 115/66 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with minor
C-class activity from regions behind both the east and west limb.
Solar wind speed declined gradually over the UT day from ~400km/s
at 00UT to be ~350km/s at the time of this report. Possible increase
in solar wind speed parameters due to minor coronal hole effects
over the next 24-48hours. The Bz component of IMF varied between
+1 and-3nT. Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next
3 days with a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Cocos Island 2 12110010
Darwin 3 12110012
Townsville 4 22111112
Learmonth 3 12111110
Alice Springs 3 12101111
Norfolk Island 2 02111000
Culgoora 3 12111111
Gingin 3 12111120
Camden 4 12112111
Canberra 2 02011101
Launceston 4 12122111
Hobart 3 02112111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 02122100
Casey 6 22321111
Mawson 17 33222354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 3201 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Apr 7 Quiet
29 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days with possible
Unsettled to Active periods for 27Apr-28Apr due to minor coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with low to mid
latitude MUFs at or exceeding predicted monthly values during
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions expected for the next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Apr 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good HF conditions for all Equatorial, Northern AUS
and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours with continued
enhanced conditions during local day for Equatorial and Northern
AUS regions. Mostly normal HF conditions for Antarctic regions
with only disturbed periods for IPS Mawson station. MUF's are
expected to be near monthly predicted values for low to mid latitude
stations for the next 3 days with possible enhancements of 10%-20%
during local day for low latitudes. Possible disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions 27Apr-29Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 62800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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