[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 14 issued 2337 UT on 25 Apr 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 26 09:37:30 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.4 0027UT probable all West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 118/70 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with
an X1.3 flare at 0027UT from region 2035 that has rotated off
the west limb. LASCO imagery indicates the associated CME was
not earth directed. The solar wind speed ranged between 400kms
and 500km/s over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain
within this range for the next 24-48 hours. The Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-5nT over the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to be Low for the next 3 days with a slight chance
of an isolated M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 32012331
Cocos Island 6 31011322
Darwin 6 32012222
Townsville 8 32112331
Learmonth 9 32123321
Alice Springs 7 22012332
Norfolk Island 4 21012220
Culgoora 7 22012331
Gingin 9 32013332
Camden 8 22013331
Canberra 7 22012331
Launceston 9 32023331
Hobart 9 32013331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Apr :
Macquarie Island 7 22023230
Casey 13 34322332
Mawson 20 34222454
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2122 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours with an Unsettled to Active period between 14UT-20UT
for mid to high latitude stations. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
expected for the next three days with the chance of Active periods
for 27Apr due to minor coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were good with MUFs at or
exceeding predicted monthly values during the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions expected for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Apr 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support for Equatorial regions
over the last 24 hours with enhanced conditions during local
day and some depressed periods during local night. Enhanced MUF's
during local day for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Disturbed periods for Antarctic stations. MUF's are expected
to be near monthly predicted values for low to mid latitude stations
with possible enhancements of 10%-20% during local day for the
next 3 days. Continued periods of disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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