[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 19 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 20 09:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with several C class
flares over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed is steady
at 500 km/s. A small step change in the IMF total field strength
occurred around 1750UT, possibly indicating the arrival of the
CME observed on the 15th of April. The speed and temperature
elevated slightly after this event, however if this is the arrival
of this CME, it is clear it will have little impact. There remain
numerous sunspot regions on the disk with some chance of producing
M class flares over the next few days. The arrival of the CME
observed on the 18th of April is expected sometime around 12UT
on the 20th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 14 33333332
Cocos Island 10 23332231
Darwin 14 33333332
Townsville 15 33333432
Learmonth 15 33333431
Alice Springs 14 33333332
Norfolk Island 12 33333321
Culgoora 14 33333332
Gingin 12 33322332
Camden 15 33333431
Canberra 13 33323332
Launceston 15 33333431
Hobart 14 23333431
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
Macquarie Island 11 2213342-
Casey 18 3443333-
Mawson 17 3433423-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Darwin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1201 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 40 Minor Storm
21 Apr 30 Active to Minor Storm
22 Apr 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 18 April and
is current for 20-22 Apr. Magnetic conditions were mostly Unsettled.
In the IPS magnetometer data for 19 Apr, a weak (10nT) impulse
was observed at 1838UT. This was seen in association with a southward
turning of the interplanetary magnetic field just after the possible
arrival of the CME observed on the 15th of April. The solar wind
conditions following this impulse indicate that if this is the
CME arrival, it will have little impact. The second CME, observed
on the 18th, is expected to arrive around 12UT on the 20th bringing
possible Minor to Major Storm followed by Active levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 19 04 2014 0100UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Fair Fair-poor Poor(PCA)
21 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: A PCA event is in progress and is expected to continue
for at least another 24 hours. Significant geomagnetic activity
is expected on the 20th and 21st of April which may impact HF
propagation conditions, particularly at high and mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 23 was issued
on 18 April and is current for 20-22 Apr. HF propagation conditions
are good with MUFs at or exceeding predicted monthly values.
Significant geomagnetic activity is expected on the 20th and
21st of April which may impact the MUF for HF communication,
particularly in polar, southern and central Australia.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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