[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 14 issued 2346 UT on 18 Apr 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 19 09:46:35 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.3 1303UT probable lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with an M7 flare produced
by region 2036(S16W41) peaking around 13UT. An strong, fast (1000km/s)
asymmetric halo CME was observed in association with this event.
The bulk of the material appears to be directed to the south,
however a significant portion is likely to be in the ecliptic
plane and is expected to arrive at Earth midway through the 20th
of April UT. This is in addition to the previous slower moving
CME which is expected to arrive at a similar time. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux passed the 10 pfu threshold following
the M7 flare and is expected to remain elevated for several days.
Further M class flare activity is possible over the next few
days from several central located sunspot regions. The solar
wind speed is steadily increasing and is currently over 500km/s
with a 10 nT total field strength IMF mostly directed northward.
Solar wind conditions are likely to remain quiet for the next
24 hours, followed by significant increase in speed, density
and magnetic field strength due to the joint arrival of the two
CMEs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 23111012
Cocos Island 4 22111111
Darwin 6 32111122
Townsville 6 23121112
Learmonth 4 22110121
Alice Springs 4 22111022
Norfolk Island 3 22010012
Culgoora 4 13111012
Gingin 3 22100021
Camden 5 23111012
Canberra 3 13010012
Launceston 6 23110123
Hobart 4 13110012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 12020011
Casey 13 25331122
Mawson 6 23211122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 3311 2421
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Apr 40 Minor Storm
21 Apr 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 18 April and
is current for 20-22 Apr. Magnetic conditions are mostly Quiet
with some Unsettled periods. These conditions are expected to
persist for the next 24 hours. On the 20th of April two CME impacts
are expected, one a slow moving glancing blow followed by a fast
moving more Earth directed event. IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14/12
has been issued as is current for this event.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 19 04 2014 0100UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
20 Apr Fair Fair-poor Poor(PCA)
21 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: A PCA event is in progress and is expected to continue
for at least 48 hours. Significant geomagnetic activity is expected
on the 20th and 21st of April which may impact HF propagation
conditions, particularly at high and mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 95% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 23 was issued
on 18 April and is current for 20-22 Apr. HF propagation conditions
are good with MUFs at or exceeding predicted monthly values.
Significant geomagnetic activity is expected on the 20th and
21st of April which is expected to impact the MUF for HF communication,
particularly in polar southern and central Australia. IPS preliminary
HF radio communications warning 14/23 has been issued and is
current for this event.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.9E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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