[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 10 09:30:27 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Three low level C-class flares, one from AR 12031 and
the others from the east limb. All regions are declining or stable.
Two CMEs observed, the first, a far-side halo event around 08/2312
UT associated with a filament eruption observed in STEREO B images,
the other, a weak event on the southwest limb. Neither event
is expected to be geoeffective. ACE data show the solar wind
speed ranging between 400-510 km/s with the north-south IMF +/-5
nT. A northern hemisphere coronal hole is expected to become
geoeffective on 11 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11112211
Cocos Island 2 11110110
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 5 22112221
Learmonth 4 11212210
Alice Springs 3 11112210
Norfolk Island 2 11111101
Culgoora 4 11112211
Gingin 3 01112220
Camden 4 11112211
Canberra 4 11112211
Launceston 5 11122221
Hobart 4 11112221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 00013210
Casey 7 23322120
Mawson 12 11322351
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2101 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 5 Quiet
11 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Possible isolated active periods in latter half of 11
Apr and 12 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Enhanced 25-50% 04-09 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Greater enhancements at Hobart, to 30%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
11 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
12 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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