[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 08 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 9 09:30:29 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: All regions are stable or declining. Two new regions,
12032 (N13 E71) an Eso group and unnumbered region at S03 E25
a Bxo group. Two CMEs, first observed ~0100 and 1125 UT; neither
appear Earth directed. ACE data show the north-south IMF ranging
+/-5 nT, with the wind speed 360-480 km/s. A low probability
of greater than C-class flares occurring over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 21013101
Cocos Island 2 21012100
Darwin 3 22012101
Townsville 4 22112101
Learmonth 3 21013100
Alice Springs 3 21012101
Norfolk Island 2 11002001
Culgoora 3 21012101
Gingin 3 11013100
Camden 3 11013101
Canberra 3 11003100
Launceston 4 22013110
Hobart 3 12003100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 11013100
Casey 6 33212101
Mawson 6 32012113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 2121 3422
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 5 Quiet
10 Apr 5 Quiet
11 Apr 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 15-20%
01-04, 13-15, 21-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 10-25%. Enhanced 25-50% 05-12 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-30%
00-01, 09-13, 22-23 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Night spread F 14-20 UT at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced.
Depressions at Mawson after 13 UT.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
10 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
11 Apr 120 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 51600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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