[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 14 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 15 09:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Two spot regions on the visible disc. Three CMEs observed
in LASCO/STEREO images; none are expected to be geo-effective.
A filament was observed, in SDO images, to lift off in the south-west
quadrant at ~1043 UT. No images available at this time to indicate
direction. ACE data show the solar wind speed decreasing from
~~610 to 460 km/s with the north-south IMF range +/-4 nT. A small,
recurrent coronal hole is expected to become geo-effective on
17 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 21212001
Cocos Island 2 21111000
Darwin 3 21112002
Townsville 4 21212011
Learmonth 5 31212110
Alice Springs 2 20112001
Norfolk Island 3 20212000
Culgoora 5 21------
Gingin 5 31212110
Camden 3 11212001
Canberra 3 11212001
Hobart 3 11212001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 11311000
Casey 10 43322112
Mawson 13 23332143
Davis 13 33332242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3121 2432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 6 Quiet
16 Sep 6 Mostly quiet, possibly becoming unsettled late.
17 Sep 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Forecast modest increase in activity late 16 or 17 Sep
due to a small, recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 20-40% 07-13 UT. Depressed 20-30% 15-23
UT. Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Depressed 35-50% 14-17 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed. Depressed
to 20% 04-08 UT, 20-40% 14-18, 21 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Night spread F at Hobart
and pre-dawn at Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 20% possible at times at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 165000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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