[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 13 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 14 09:30:13 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Two sunspot regions on the visible disc. Two CMEs observed
in LASCO and STEREO images, neither is expected to be geo-effective.
The first was associated with a filament lift-off in the south-east
quadrant around 0059 UT, seen in SDO/GONG images. The other appears
to have originated from behind the east limb. ACE data show the
solar wind speed was somewhat elevated, 420-600 km/s with the
north-south IMF ranging between +/-7 nT. A recurrent coronal
hole is now located at central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22212421
Cocos Island 7 22221321
Darwin 8 22221421
Townsville 9 22222421
Learmonth 10 22222431
Alice Springs 9 22222421
Norfolk Island 5 -1112321
Culgoora 10 2221243-
Gingin 9 21212432
Camden 8 22212421
Canberra 8 22212421
Hobart 10 22213431
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
Macquarie Island 12 22213521
Casey 20 45422432
Mawson 30 534-----
Davis 22 44332354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1121 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 8 Quiet to unsettled
15 Sep 6 Quiet
16 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 11 September
and is current for 12-14 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 20-35%
15-19, 23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30-45% 00-10 UT. Depressed 20-35%
13-17 UT. Mostly near predicted monthly values at
other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced at Darwin
25-35% 08-11, 15-16 UT, and 60-85% 12-14 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Some night spread F
at Hobart and Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 20% possible at times at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 53300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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