[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 01 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 2 09:30:12 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 108/58 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at Low levels with a single C1
class X-ray flare. The solar wind speed increased rapidly from
450 km/s to up to 600 km/s at around 06UT. This is most probably
the arrival of the CME observed early on the 30th of August.
The IMF Bt remained at nominal levels of less than 5nT after
this probable impact. The solar wind speed is expected to return
to nominal levels over the next day or so as the recent coronal
hole high speed stream and CME effects wane. Flare activity is
expected to remain at Low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22213221
Cocos Island 3 21112110
Darwin 7 22213222
Townsville 6 22212221
Learmonth 4 21112220
Alice Springs 6 22213211
Norfolk Island 5 22212111
Culgoora 7 22213221
Gingin 7 22213221
Camden 7 22213221
Canberra 4 12212110
Hobart 8 22323220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Sep :
Macquarie Island 10 12334310
Casey 10 24322221
Mawson 35 44333466
Davis 22 53333352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 4433 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Sep 5 Quiet
04 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 31 August and
is current for 1-2 Sep. The CME impact expected on the 1st of
September appears to have occurred but without causing a geomagnetic
disturbance. Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled
over the next day as the currently moderate solar wind speeds
fall back to normal levels. Quiet conditions are expected for
the following 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 97900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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