[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 31 Aug 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 1 09:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at Low levels with a single
C2 flare from region 1836 (N11E19) at around 1730UT. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed. Solar wind speeds remain mildly
elevated at 450 km/s under the influence of a coronal hole high
speed stream. The IMF Bt has fallen to around 5nT. Impact from
the edge of the CME observed early on the 30th of August is expected
on day 1. Flare activity is expected to remain at Low levels
with some small chance of M class flares over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 32222101
Cocos Island 6 32222101
Darwin 9 32332112
Townsville 8 23322112
Learmonth 5 32222100
Alice Springs 6 32222101
Norfolk Island 4 22221101
Culgoora 6 22322102
Gingin 8 42222111
Camden 6 22322101
Canberra 4 22221001
Hobart 7 32322101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug :
Macquarie Island 19 33545100
Casey 13 44422111
Mawson 29 63332326
Davis 17 43443231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1012 2224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 25 Active
02 Sep 12 Unsettled
03 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 31 August and
is current for 1-2 Sep. Magnetic conditions are currently Quiet
to Unsettle due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream. A CME
impact is expected on day 1, bringing Active conditions on arrival
followed by Unsettled conditions into day 2.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 70
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days. Some mildly depressed conditions may be
experienced in southern regions on the 1st and 2nd of September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 64300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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