[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 13 issued 2338 UT on 04 Nov 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 5 10:38:38 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest
events being a C3.2 xray flare from region 1884 at 0544UT and
a C2.6 xray flare from region 1890 at 1114UT.A notable backside
event full halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery between
05-06UT. Solar wind speed remained slightly elevated at ~390km/s
at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT over
the UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain Low to Moderate
for the next 3 days with chance of M-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 11121311
Cocos Island 1 01------
Darwin 5 21111312
Townsville 6 21121321
Learmonth 6 12221312
Alice Springs 5 21111312
Culgoora 5 11111321
Camden 6 11221322
Canberra 3 01111211
Launceston 6 12221321
Hobart 6 12221311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 02122310
Casey 16 24531322
Mawson 17 23232543
Davis 21 13432632
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2331 1021
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 6 Quiet
06 Nov 6 Quiet
07 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal to good
for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 4
November and is current for 4-5 Nov. Enhanced conditions observed
for IPS Niue Is. station over the last 24 hours as well as during
local night for Southern AUS and NZ regions. Similar enhanced
ionospheric conditions are expected across the Southern AUS/NZ
and Northern AUS/Equatorial regions for the next 3 days with
the chance of SWFs from current active solar regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 96500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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