[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 13 issued 2345 UT on 03 Nov 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 4 10:45:14 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.0 0522UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate due to an M5-flare
from region 1884. Further C-class and possible M-class flares
are expected from solar regions 1884 and 1890. No earth directed
CMEs were observed during 3 November. Solar wind speeds have
been predominantly below 400 km/s during 3 November and are expected
to remain around these low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 23210022
Cocos Island 2 12100011
Darwin 4 23200021
Townsville 5 23200022
Learmonth 4 13100022
Alice Springs 4 23100022
Culgoora 5 13210022
Camden 5 23210022
Canberra 4 13210021
Launceston 7 23320022
Hobart 6 13320021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
Macquarie Island 6 13330001
Casey 13 34422023
Mawson 16 33312154
Davis 18 33422054
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1101 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 6 Quiet
05 Nov 5 Quiet
06 Nov 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal to good
for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 88
Nov 71
Dec 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Nov 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal to good
for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 27200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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