[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 13 issued 2336 UT on 11 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 12 09:36:53 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 May 13 May 14 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a
C1.3 flare from region 1744 at 0256UT and a C8.0 flare from region
1746 at 1948UT. Solar activity is expected to range between Low
to Moderate for the next 3 days with the chance of M-class events.
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz component ranged between
+/-4nT over the UT day. Solar wind speed was 375km/s at the time
of this report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 -1110001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 5 -2221122
Learmonth 1 11011001
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Culgoora 2 11111001
Gingin 0 -1010000
Camden 1 11100001
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 3 11111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
Macquarie Island 2 30010000
Casey 9 43321111
Mawson 9 52110022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1111 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 May 4 Quiet
13 May 7 Quiet
14 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions expected for the next 24 hours with possible Unsettled
conditions for 13May and 14May due to a slight increase in solar
wind parameters caused by a minor coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of
occasional short-wave fadeouts from M class flares.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 May 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
13 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
14 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed over the
AUS/NZ region for the last 24 hours with notable enhancements
for IPS Cocos Is. between 00UT-12UT. Depressed conditions observed
during local night for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions.
MUF's expected to be near predicted monthly values over the next
3 days with chance of depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ and
Northern AUS regions during local night and enhanced periods
for Cocos and Niue stations during local day. Short wave fadeouts
possible with reasonable chance of M flares from active regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 44900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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