[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 13 issued 2344 UT on 10 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 11 09:44:57 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.9 0058UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 1258UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
an M3.9 flare at 0057UT and M1.3 flare at 1256UT originating
from region 1745 situated on the east limb. There were also numerous
C-class events from regions 1739,1742 and 1744. Solar activity
is expected to range between Low to Moderate for the next 3 days.
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz component ranged between
+3nT and -4nT over the UT day. Solar wind speed was 415km/s at
the time of this report and is expected to gradually decline
over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 2 21111001
Darwin 2 21111001
Townsville 1 11111000
Learmonth 6 22222112
Alice Springs 2 2-111001
Gingin 3 22111011
Camden 1 11111000
Canberra 0 10001000
Hobart 3 21112011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
Macquarie Island 2 13001000
Casey 6 24311000
Mawson 5 13112111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2112 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 4 Quiet
12 May 4 Quiet
13 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with chance of Unsettled
periods for 13May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of
occasional short-wave fadeouts from M class flares.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
12 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
13 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support observed over the
AUS/NZ region for the last 24 hours with notable enhancements
for IPS Cocos Is. and Niue in the first half of the UT day. MUFs
near monthly predicted values for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ
regions. MUF's expected to be near predicted monthly values over
the next 3 days with chance of depressed periods for Southern
AUS/NZ and Northern AUS regions during local night and enhanced
periods for Cocos and Niue stations during local day. Short wave
fadeouts possible with reasonable chance of M flares from active
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 475 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 62800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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