[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 13 issued 2325 UT on 06 Mar 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 7 10:25:31 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 112/63 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly Very Low to
Low with the small chance of Moderate activity. Solar wind speeds
continued to decline slowly during 6 March and are presently
around 300 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain around
this level for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 3 12111011
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 5 22221111
Alice Springs 2 11111011
Norfolk Island 3 12111111
Gingin 2 11111011
Camden 2 11111011
Canberra 0 00000010
Hobart 2 11101011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 51000010
Casey 6 23311011
Mawson 9 44221002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 5 Quiet
08 Mar 5 Quiet
09 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet levels are expected for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days. SWFs possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar 85 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 85 Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 5
March and is current for 6-7 Mar. Mostly normal to good HF conditions
are expected for the next few days. SWFs possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 37900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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