[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 13 issued 2332 UT on 05 Mar 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 6 10:32:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0754UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: An M1.2-flare was observed from solar region 1686 at
0754UT on 5 March. Further low level flare class activity is
possible over the next couple of days. An impressive CME was
observed in STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery several hours prior
to this flare. Analysis of the imagery suggests the CME is a
backside event and is not expected to be geoeffective. No front-side
CME appears associated with the M1-flare. Solar wind speeds declined
slowly during 5 March and are presently around 350 km/s. Solar
wind speeds are expected to continue to decline slowly during
the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22111211
Darwin 3 21100211
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 6 32211221
Alice Springs 4 21111211
Norfolk Island 3 21111111
Gingin 4 21111221
Camden 3 2-201111
Canberra 1 21000100
Hobart 3 13101200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 10------
Casey 10 33411122
Mawson 16 53211144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2111 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 5 Quiet
07 Mar 5 Quiet
08 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet levels are expected for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 5
March and is current for 6-7 Mar. Mostly normal HF conditions
are expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 74600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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