[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 16 09:30:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: The group of Active Regions 1769 to 1772 is located
on the south east quadrant of the Sun and the large AR 1768 is
located in the south west quadrant. The 10.7 cm solar flux is
trending upwards. A C1.0 flare peaked at 04:00 UT and a B7.1
flare at 09:33 UT. SOHO LASCO C2 images show a non-halo CME emerging
from the south west limb of the Sun at the start of June 15.
None of these events are expected to cause significant geomagnetic
activity. Solar activity is expected to remain very low to low
with only a very small chance of a major flare in the next 2
days. The solar wind speed increased from approximately 310 km/s
to 350 km/s during the previous 24 hours. The solar wind plasma
density is declining and Bz remained mostly between -3 nT and
+3 nT. The Enlil solar wind model indicates increasing solar
wind density and speed during June 17-18.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 21210101
Cocos Island 3 2121010-
Darwin 3 22210101
Townsville 5 2222121-
Learmonth 2 21210100
Norfolk Island 2 21100001
Culgoora 3 21211101
Camden 2 11210101
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 1 10100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 1000000-
Casey 5 2222121-
Mawson 14 6221100-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 5 Quiet
17 Jun 5 Quiet
18 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet during June 14
and 15 and are expect to remain quiet today, June 16. Conditions
are expected to become unsettled during June 17-18 when the next
sector boundary crossing impacts Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to
remain near to monthly predicted values. The 10.7 cm solar flux
has begun trending upwards again. This may lead to an increase
in ionospheric support for higher frequencies.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to
remain near to monthly predicted values. The 10.7 cm solar flux
has begun trending upwards again. This may lead to an increase
in ionospheric support for higher frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 19700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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