[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jun 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 15 09:30:17 EST 2013 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jun             16 Jun             17 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: There are presently three active regions facing the 
Earth. A C1.2 flare from AR 1769 peaked at 00:31 UT on June 14. 
A Type II solar radio burst indicating the launch of a CME was 
detected at Learmonth Solar Observatory. However, AR 1769 was 
located on the eastern side of the solar disk and the CME is 
not Earthward directed. Two B class flares have subsequently 
occurred, one each from AR 1768 and AR 1772. AR 1768 is growing 
in complexity and may produce C and possibly even an M class 
flare during the next 48 hours. AR 1768 is in a more geo-effective 
location. During the previous 24 hours, the solar wind speed 
decreased from approximately 350 to 320 km/s and Bz fluctuated 
between -3 nT and +3 nT. Solar wind models indicate increasing 
solar wind plasma density and speed commencing during the next 
3 to 4 days. Although solar conditions remain quiet at present, 
more active conditions are possible within 2 to 4 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Cocos Island         2   10120010
      Darwin               2   11110011
      Townsville           6   22221122
      Learmonth            2   11020010
      Norfolk Island       0   01010000
      Culgoora             2   11110011
      Camden               1   01010011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                5   22121121
      Mawson               7   22110034

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jun     4    Quiet
16 Jun     6    Quiet
17 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have been very quiet. Conditions 
are expected to become unsettled when the next sector boundary 
crossing with subsequent faster solar wind speed impacts the 
Earth during the next 3 to 4 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to 
remain near to monthly predicted values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jun    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun    60    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation is expected to 
remain near to monthly predicted values. However, spread F conditions 
have been occurring during the night at Australian mid-latitude 
stations and the plasma density has been trough like above Macquarie 
Island. Consider using lower operating frequencies during the 
night-time episodes of spread F to increase the reliability of 
mid-latitude circuits. Some winter time sporadic E layers have 
also been present.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    67100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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